I like the idea of the government controlling and regulating some things. I have just been reading about problems with imports from China in industries that are not regulated. Pet food with melamine killed lots of dogs and cats, toothpaste had poison in it, Chinese cough medicine killed 300 people in Panama, and so on. In addition to the suffering and death resulting from this lack of regulation, these things will hurt the Chinese economy because people will be less likely to buy food, medicine or anything dangerous from China.
Regulation is an important part of a modern functioning economy. The Chinese economy is being damaged by lack of regulation. I think it is valid to complain about a particular regulation that you think is wrong, but I don't think it makes much sense to criticize the concept of government regulation in general.
Thursday, October 30, 2008
Friday, October 17, 2008
Global Population
I am thinking of changing my allocation to international stocks, and this is why.
I am reading a book, "Futurecast" by Robert Shapiro, that talks about the changes we can expect between now and 2020. He goes into great detail about huge coming problems in Europe and Japan caused by declining birth rates. These countries have promised much more to retires than the USA. Our problems with social security seem trivial in comparison. We have a higher birth rate and more immigration. We will have some problems when a smaller group of workers has to pay social security for a large group of baby boomers but we will manage.
Japan has a declining population and almost no immigration. France, Germany and Italy have declining populations and some immigration, but the immigrants are not as productive as the Mexicans coming to the USA, and the problems with Moslem immigrants may lead to a backlash against immigration.
These countries are going to have a huge problem which will severely impact their economies and may lead to destabilizing social unrest and possibly a type of ugly class warfare between seniors expecting big benefits and young workers resentful of a declining standard of living because of the taxes needed to pay the seniors.
On the other hand, I have been predicting the future since I first started reading Science Fiction at about age 12. I have almost always been wrong. A few years ago I was throwing out a bunch of old Time and Newsweek magazines that were 5-10 years old. I read all the predictions by the pundits in those magazines. They were all wrong. It is fun to try to guess the future, but there are so many variables that it is usually impossible.
What do you think? Leave a comment and tell me.
I am reading a book, "Futurecast" by Robert Shapiro, that talks about the changes we can expect between now and 2020. He goes into great detail about huge coming problems in Europe and Japan caused by declining birth rates. These countries have promised much more to retires than the USA. Our problems with social security seem trivial in comparison. We have a higher birth rate and more immigration. We will have some problems when a smaller group of workers has to pay social security for a large group of baby boomers but we will manage.
Japan has a declining population and almost no immigration. France, Germany and Italy have declining populations and some immigration, but the immigrants are not as productive as the Mexicans coming to the USA, and the problems with Moslem immigrants may lead to a backlash against immigration.
These countries are going to have a huge problem which will severely impact their economies and may lead to destabilizing social unrest and possibly a type of ugly class warfare between seniors expecting big benefits and young workers resentful of a declining standard of living because of the taxes needed to pay the seniors.
On the other hand, I have been predicting the future since I first started reading Science Fiction at about age 12. I have almost always been wrong. A few years ago I was throwing out a bunch of old Time and Newsweek magazines that were 5-10 years old. I read all the predictions by the pundits in those magazines. They were all wrong. It is fun to try to guess the future, but there are so many variables that it is usually impossible.
What do you think? Leave a comment and tell me.
Friday, October 10, 2008
Political discourse
"Discussions should be conducted without fondness for dispute or desire for victory." - Ben Franklin
Anger is a great motivator and both political parties are using anger to motivate their base. This has lead to a situation where both liberals and conservatives are furious and think the other side is composed of idiots and scoundrels. This is not healthy. There is a mixture of wisdom and folly coming from both sides. Most of the politicians really are corrupt scoundrels, but most of the voters on either side are just decent people doing their best to understand a complicated world. I am trying to spend more time listening and understanding, and less time arguing, condemning and trying to persuade others to my point of view.
I'll be happy to listen to any political point of view as long as it is presented in a friendly intelligent manner. I am tired of listening to angry rants. I would rather talk to people who are curious and realize there is a lot they don't know.
In most conversations a person can take the one of two roles. We can see ourselves as trying to win a contest, or we can see ourselves as trying to learn something new. It is hard to do both. I prefer the role of the learner. I prefer curiosity to competition.
Anger is a great motivator and both political parties are using anger to motivate their base. This has lead to a situation where both liberals and conservatives are furious and think the other side is composed of idiots and scoundrels. This is not healthy. There is a mixture of wisdom and folly coming from both sides. Most of the politicians really are corrupt scoundrels, but most of the voters on either side are just decent people doing their best to understand a complicated world. I am trying to spend more time listening and understanding, and less time arguing, condemning and trying to persuade others to my point of view.
I'll be happy to listen to any political point of view as long as it is presented in a friendly intelligent manner. I am tired of listening to angry rants. I would rather talk to people who are curious and realize there is a lot they don't know.
In most conversations a person can take the one of two roles. We can see ourselves as trying to win a contest, or we can see ourselves as trying to learn something new. It is hard to do both. I prefer the role of the learner. I prefer curiosity to competition.
Tuesday, October 07, 2008
Do not worry about running out of oil
If there is less oil we will use less. We will have smaller cars, drive less, fly less, keep our air conditioners running less. We will eat more food that is grown near by rather than using huge amounts of oil to transport food all over the world. Maybe we will even grow more of our food. I have a friend now who claims he grows half of what he eats in a vegetable garden about 25 feet square. He seems to get a lot of pleasure from doing this.
Life will go on. People might even be happier. They will hang out in their own neighborhoods and make friends with their neighbors rather than driving all over the place looking for fulfillment.
In the short run we will use less energy. Don't worry about it. We don't need to live like this, burning all this oil to be happy.
In the long term we will develop solar, wind, safe nuclear and other forms of energy. We will learn to do things with greater energy efficiency and have more energy than ever.
Don't worry. Be happy.
Life will go on. People might even be happier. They will hang out in their own neighborhoods and make friends with their neighbors rather than driving all over the place looking for fulfillment.
In the short run we will use less energy. Don't worry about it. We don't need to live like this, burning all this oil to be happy.
In the long term we will develop solar, wind, safe nuclear and other forms of energy. We will learn to do things with greater energy efficiency and have more energy than ever.
Don't worry. Be happy.
Katherines web site
Katherine is going into private practice. Here is a web site I built for her:
http://katherinedurant.com/
The second domain goes to the same site
http://katherinedurantesq.com/
And you get to the same place using WWW
http://www.katherinedurant.com/
http://www.katherinedurantesq.com/
http://katherinedurant.com/
The second domain goes to the same site
http://katherinedurantesq.com/
And you get to the same place using WWW
http://www.katherinedurant.com/
http://www.katherinedurantesq.com/
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