Global Population

I am thinking of changing my allocation to international stocks, and this is why.

I am reading a book, "Futurecast" by Robert Shapiro, that talks about the changes we can expect between now and 2020. He goes into great detail about huge coming problems in Europe and Japan caused by declining birth rates. These countries have promised much more to retires than the USA. Our problems with social security seem trivial in comparison. We have a higher birth rate and more immigration. We will have some problems when a smaller group of workers has to pay social security for a large group of baby boomers but we will manage.

Japan has a declining population and almost no immigration. France, Germany and Italy have declining populations and some immigration, but the immigrants are not as productive as the Mexicans coming to the USA, and the problems with Moslem immigrants may lead to a backlash against immigration.

These countries are going to have a huge problem which will severely impact their economies and may lead to destabilizing social unrest and possibly a type of ugly class warfare between seniors expecting big benefits and young workers resentful of a declining standard of living because of the taxes needed to pay the seniors.

On the other hand, I have been predicting the future since I first started reading Science Fiction at about age 12. I have almost always been wrong. A few years ago I was throwing out a bunch of old Time and Newsweek magazines that were 5-10 years old. I read all the predictions by the pundits in those magazines. They were all wrong. It is fun to try to guess the future, but there are so many variables that it is usually impossible.

What do you think? Leave a comment and tell me.